Is VR a bubble? Four methods to determine if it is a bubble

According to the reporter, in June, Newsweek published an article about 3D printing, analyzing the bubble of 3D printing. Roughly the author agrees with the analysis of the Newsweek article, and even believes that it can be applied to the current VR issue. But before doing so, you must first make some premise clear.

The so-called bubble in economic activities usually refers to the phenomenon that the value of the market (book) far exceeds the actual value. The reasons for the far-reaching are diverse and complex, but whether it is 3D printing or VR, there is not yet a bubble in economic activity. Even though several major manufacturers of 3D printing have enjoyed the taste of a short-lived stock price, the market quickly corrected it. Not to mention VR, there are no companies that have VR as the main business in the main market.

Therefore, I think that Newsweek and the bubble in many populations are not aimed at economic activities, but rather bubbles in opinions. In other words, what most people care about is the enthusiasm and optimistic expectations of the neighbors and the media. Today is only a temporary sudden phenomenon, and the phenomenon does not match the facts.

Some people on the Internet have listed a list of bubbles, including several of the most popular technology topics in recent years, including Big Data, the Internet of Things, Fintech, 3D printing, and the VR to be discussed.

Regardless of big data, the Internet of Things, and Fintech, 3D printing and VR are quite similar in the development of the “comment bubble”.

First, neither technology is “new”. 3D printing appeared in the 1980s, when it was called addiTIve manufacturing; VR appeared in the 1960s, such as the first VR head-mounted display (The Sword of Damocles) made by Ivan Sutherland and his student Bob Sproull.

Second, the two technologies have long been used only in “specific areas”. In addition to being used in the prototype evaluation stage of large manufacturers, 3D printing is also used to produce some aerospace components. For example, General Electric will use 3D printing technology to manufacture injectors in the next generation LEAP turbo engine (VR is long-term application). In the military's simulation system, but better than 3D printing luck (or worse?), when VR first appeared in the consumer market in the 1990s, it was hit.

Third, the reason why the two technologies have received great attention in recent years is “low price opening”. In recent years, the 3D printing boom began in the RepRap Project open source project in 2005, and developers around the world suddenly had the opportunity to make a cheap 3D printer. In recent years, the beginning of VR has started from the 2012 Oculus Rift netizen crowdfunding. At that time, as long as the sponsorship of 300 US dollars, you can get a VR head-mounted display, which is included in the inflation, and the price is the Nintendo launched in 1995, the price of 180 dollars Virtual Boy Close.

The boom and bubble of 3D printing and VR, probably using the phrase "a technology that has existed for a long time and was limited to a specific high-order or even mysterious field, will now successfully enter the consumer market and further promote industrial change," To sum up; the so-called "bubble has broken", in fact, the last two sentences of this passage can not be fulfilled: that is, the technology can not stand in the consumer market, and did not cause industrial changes.

John Brandon wrote an article on Inc.com in response to Newsweek's comment on the 3D print bubble. He presented four ways to evaluate current hot technology trends with a person who has been passionate about 3D printing:

This is not a standard methodology for industrial research, but it is also very close and easy for everyone to use. For VR, we can also use this method to build our own problem awareness and knowledge structure, so as not to ask questions that are not level. The following is my extended question on these four questions, for your reference.

Be sure to use it yourself.

This problem is mostly the association of the "product" class. At present, the types of VR devices are varied, and the quality of the different types of devices is very different except for the difference in price. Based on personal experience, which one do you think will be the mainstream of the consumer market? Which kind of experience is close to the ideal "virtual reality"? What are the most difficult use obstacles to overcome? Do you really want to have it after you overcome it?

Ask some questions about stepping on the painful foot

This problem is mostly an analysis of the "industry" category. Some organizations claim that the global VR head-mounted display is expected to ship 9 million units this year. The PS VR used with the PlayStaTIon 4 game console will ship 6 million units. Do you think this figure is reasonable? Some companies claim that their VR business turnover is expected to account for half of the company's revenue after three years. How high do you think this is happening?

Talk to bystanders

This issue is also an analysis of the "industry" category. When a technology trend emerges, people's subconscious mind is to ask people in the “alley” to ask, including to find a professor who has published a VR paper 2 or 30 years ago, a player who has been involved in the VR field two years ago, or It is an entrepreneur who is planning to get the seed round of funds and is going to go all out. But the truth of technology trends is that bystanders are always more than the authorities. You can visit these bystanders to find out what they really want to continue to watch the fire on the other side; but they also have to doubt their answers. For example, some ODM manufacturers say that based on risk assessment, investing in VR advanced technology is not a consideration at this stage.

Hands-on calculation

This problem is mostly an analysis of the "business model" category. The mainstream sales model for 3D printing is "blade and razor", which means that you have to buy 3D printing consumables when you buy a 3D printer. What is the sales model of VR? Will it be a reversal of the "blade and razor", using a very cheap blade (content) to induce you to buy a razor (VR device)? How much content and services are available after buying a VR device? Does the high-priced VR head-mounted display match its price? Or even directly to the VR company that you have access to, ask: "How do you profit when so few people hold the VR equipment?"

There is no answer to this article. I only try to provide a way to observe, reflect, and even criticize VR issues through the hot 3D printing in the tech circles in recent weeks.